Gensler, the global architecture, design, and planning firm with 53 locations and more than 7,000 professionals networked across Asia, Europe, Australia, the Middle East, and the Americas has published its annual forecast report on global trends across the built environment.
Samar Hussein, Design Resilience Leader and Associate at Gensler Middle East extracts the trends in the sustainability space with a spotlight on the region:
The building industry in the GCC is projected to grow by up to 4% annually in 2023-2024. This projection presents a great opportunity for sustainable development and implementation of clean energy
Despite persisting economic dark clouds, investments in sustainable design strategies and ESG-related programs will continue, especially as more organizations understand that their real estate may be the most powerful climate action tool at their disposal. As embodied carbon analysis gains recognition alongside the drive for operational net zero goals, design and construction strategies that sequester carbon in buildings and prioritize locally manufactured materials will see a high degree of success. Advocacy for local building code improvements will be critical as governments seek to raise the standard across projects.
As energy grids decarbonize, the embodied carbon associated with new construction will become more consequential
TREND 01:
Carbon performance certifications will increase in importance across global real estate in the immediate future.
Radical transparency is the name of the game as companies shift to a culture of disclosure around their environmental commitments. Net zero energy and carbon certifications will become baseline expectations even in industries with traditionally poor building performance.
TREND 02:
Europe will chart a course toward regenerative systems. The Middle East will follow suit.
Recognizing that carbon reduction is only the first step in a long journey, much of Europe is embracing climate action strategies focused on low-tech design and regenerative systems. Such strategies will shift the focus from minimizing environmental harm (net zero) to actively benefiting local ecologies and generating renewable, clean energy (net positive). This presents a great opportunity for the Middle East to learn and leverage from this success and partner for advancement in these sectors.
TREND 03:
Transforming existing buildings and materials with reuse strategies will supersede new construction.
As energy grids decarbonize, the embodied carbon associated with new construction will become more consequential. Adaptive reuse, which can reduce a building’s life cycle carbon by 40%, will be an important antidote to this dilemma, especially as forward-thinking governments and firms pledge to prioritize retrofits over new builds. The GCC currently has growing initiatives on reuse and recycling, with an upcoming focus on low-carbon projects, emphasized by KSA’s vision for sustainable giga-developments.
Renovating existing building stock to a zero-carbon-ready level should be the next priority for advancing the region’s sustainability targets for 2030-2060.
Renovating buildings typically saves between 50% to 75% of the embodied carbon emissions compared to constructing a new building, particularly when the building foundation and structural skeleton are maintained.
TREND 04:
Certifications will emerge to better define and quantify socially responsible strategies – the ‘S’ in ESG.
While many prominent certification programs exist to demonstrate environmental and governance commitments, the same cannot currently be said for the social aspects of ESG. Funds are increasingly seeking clarity on equity, inclusion, and wellness. In coming years, we expect new evaluation systems for socially responsible strategies as companies look to prove their mettle to investors and customers.
An uptake of qualification targets will encourage a new set of baseline sustainability measures to be enforced across the Middle East and globally. While the region is far behind the rest of the world in building renovation and reuse volumes, the region has a unique opportunity to develop and implement sustainability measures from the off-set across new projects.